| Indicator |
Indicator 3.3.2: Tuberculosis incidence per 100,000 population
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| Target |
Target 3.3: By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseases
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| Organisation |
World Health Organization (WHO)
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| Definition and concepts |
Definition:
Tuberculosis (TB) incidence is defined as the estimated number of new and relapse TB cases (all forms of TB, including cases in people living with HIV) arising in a given year. It is usually expressed as a rate per 100 000 population.
Concepts:
Direct measurement requires high-quality surveillance systems in which underreporting is negligible, and strong health systems so that under-diagnosis is also negligible; otherwise, indirect estimates are produced, using either a) notification data combined with estimates of levels of underreporting and under-diagnosis, b) inventory studies combined with capture-recapture modelling, c) population-based surveys of the prevalence of TB disease or d) dynamic models fitted to monthly/quarterly notification data. Dynamic models are only used for selected countries in which major drops in TB case notifications compared with pre-2020 trends suggest major reductions in access to TB diagnosis and treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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| Unit of measure |
Number of cases per year per 100,000 population.
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| Data sources |
Details about data sources and methods are available in annex 1 and the technical appendix on methods used by WHO to estimate the global burden of tuberculosis disease published alongside the most recent WHO Global Tuberculosis Report at https://www.who.int/teams/global- tuberculosis-programme/data
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| Data providers |
National TB Programmes, Ministries of Health
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| Comment and limitations |
TB incidence has been used for over a century as a main indicator of TB burden, along with TB mortality. The indicator allows comparisons over time and between countries. Improvement in the quality of TB surveillance data result in reduced uncertainty about indicator values.
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| Method of computation |
Estimates of TB incidence are produced through a consultative and analytical process led by WHO and are published annually. These estimates are derived from annual case notifications, assessments of the quality and coverage of TB notification data, national surveys of the prevalence of TB disease, national inventory studies and information from death (vital) registration systems.
For the period 2000-2019, estimates of incidence for each country are derived using one or more of the following approaches, depending on available data: (i) incidence = case notifications/estimated proportion of cases detected; (ii) capture-recapture modelling, (iii) incidence = prevalence/duration of condition.
For 2020 and 2021 specifically, these methods were retained for most countries. However, for countries with large absolute reductions in the reported number of people newly diagnosed with TB in 2020 or 2021 relative to pre-2020 trends (which suggested major disruptions to access to TB diagnosis and treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic), dynamic models were used in replacement of the methods used for 2000-2019.
Uncertainty bounds are provided in addition to best estimates.
Details are provided in the technical appendix on methods used by WHO to estimate the global burden of tuberculosis disease published alongside the most recent WHO global tuberculosis report at https://www.who.int/teams/global-tuberculosis- programme/data.
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| Metadata update |
2023-12-15
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| International organisations(s) responsible for global monitoring |
World Health Organization (WHO)
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| Related indicators |
Indicators associated with tuberculosis incidence: numbers: 1.1.1, 1.3.1, 2.1.1, 3.3.1, 3.4.1, 3.5.2, 3.a.1, 3.8.1, 3.8.2, 7.1.2, 8.1.1, 10.1.1, 11.1.1
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